Lex专栏花旗财报说明什么
Lex专栏：花旗财报说明什么？
一个涉及3000多亿美元的问题仍有待解答：危机过后，银行的正常盈利水平是多少？最重要的因素是各银行的根本盈利能力。但紧随其后的因素，是监管部门对该行业的整治力度。花旗集团(Citigroup)昨日发布的财报，应该可以证明前一点。另一方面，银行类股在上周五的重创后企稳，表明投资者认为美国证交会(SEC)对高盛(Goldman Sachs)的指控不会蔓延到其它银行。
The problem with estimating a banks core earnings power is that they are still giving off mixed signals. At Citi, securities and banking revenues were up by a half versus last quarter, but were down 19 per cent year-on-year. What is more, higher net revenue marks to the tune of over a billion dollars, plus lower credit costs and expenses, helped the bottom line. Citis cost discipline should be applauded, but will banks go on a spending binge again if the good times keep rolling?
Nor is it certain these are such good times. Citi had virtually no asset growth to speak of and average loans and deposits declined. Mortgage volumes are also down. Consumer banking revenues in the supposedly hot Asian and Latin American markets were flat compared with the prior quarter and while overall credit trends were improving, losses remained elevated. Citi, with its consumer bias, is particularly exposed to another leg down in the global economy.
而且，我们还不能肯定现在的形势大好。花旗几乎没有任何值得一提的资产增长，平均存贷款额也有所下降。同样下降的还有抵押贷款数额。在原以为火爆的亚洲和拉美市场，花旗零售银行业务的收入仅与上季度持平；尽管总体信贷趋势正在改善，但亏损仍有所上升。当全球经济的另一条腿也支撑不住时，侧重于零售客户的花旗尤其容易受到影响。
Still, if the world recovers, leveraged banks will prosper. What investors are wrong to assume, however, is that the SEC suit is only Goldmans problem. Global politicians still have banks in their sights and should they use Goldman as an excuse for punitive reforms, Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman reckon up to 8 per cent could be wiped off industry returns on equity. Investors wont know what is normal for a long time yet.
不过，如果全球经济复苏，举债经营的银行就会蒸蒸日上。但投资者如果以为SEC的起诉只是高盛的麻烦，那就错了。全球政界人士仍在盯着银行业，据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和奥纬咨询(Oliver Wyman)估计，如果他们以高盛为借口来推行惩罚性改革，那可能会使银行业的股本回报率减少至多8个百分点。在很长一段时间内，投资者都不会知道银行的正常盈利水平到底是多少。
Lex专栏：花旗财报说明什么？
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